Earnings, priced on-chain before the open · para
- US companies report after the 16:00 ET close or before the 09:30 open.
- The para stock perps on Hyperliquid trade through the night.
- For each results filing: how far the chain had moved by each point, against the real opening gap.
Books on Paragon (para) are much thinner than xyz's: a point is the last para trade at or before it, so many are "—", and a "first reaction" can be one stray fill. Collector gaps are judged on xyz's trade flow, recorded by the same collector. Scored on its own, never mixed into the xyz scorecard.
- The SEC filing time is an upper bound on the release time.
- The press release crosses the wire first: the chain's first reaction came a median 2m 04s earlier (n = 4).
- The first reaction shown is a detected jump on chain, not the release time.
- The real stock also trades after hours and from 04:00 ET, so the chain is not the only venue reacting.
- No consensus, no beat or miss, no EPS: there is no official expectation.
Did the chain call the opening gap?correlation and sign agreement, with n and 95% intervals as published
| chain at | n | Pearson r 95% CI | same sign as gap 95% CI | mean abs error | slope | share of gap median · p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +5 min | 6 | — | 6 of 6 no rate below n = 15 | 2.82 pp | — | 104% 68–124% n 6 |
| +1 h | 5 | — | 4 of 5 no rate below n = 15 | 3.57 pp | — | 91% 55–126% n 5 |
| 20:00 ETafter-close events only | 2 | — | 2 of 2 no rate below n = 15 | 2.08 pp | — | 72% 51–92% n 2 |
| 03:59 ETafter-close events only | 1 | — | 1 of 1 no rate below n = 15 | 0.87 pp | — | 92% 92–92% n 1 |
| pre-open09:29:59 ET · mostly follows US pre-market trading (from 04:00 ET), not the chain's own call | 7 | — | 7 of 7 no rate below n = 15 | 1.98 pp | — | 118% 96–143% n 7 |
| chain at | n | Pearson r 95% CI | same sign as gap 95% CI | mean abs error | slope |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +5 min | 6 | — | 6 of 6 no rate below n = 15 | 2.82 pp | — |
| +1 h | 5 | — | 4 of 5 no rate below n = 15 | 3.57 pp | — |
| 20:00 ETafter-close events only | 2 | — | 2 of 2 no rate below n = 15 | 2.08 pp | — |
| 03:59 ETafter-close events only | 1 | — | 1 of 1 no rate below n = 15 | 0.87 pp | — |
| pre-open09:29:59 ET · mostly follows US pre-market trading (from 04:00 ET), not the chain's own call | 7 | — | 7 of 7 no rate below n = 15 | 1.98 pp | — |
| chain at | n | Pearson r 95% CI | same sign as gap 95% CI | mean abs error | slope |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +5 min | 5 | — | 5 of 5 no rate below n = 15 | 2.34 pp | — |
| +1 h | 4 | — | 3 of 4 no rate below n = 15 | 3.60 pp | — |
| 20:00 ETafter-close events only | 2 | — | 2 of 2 no rate below n = 15 | 2.08 pp | — |
| 03:59 ETafter-close events only | 1 | — | 1 of 1 no rate below n = 15 | 0.87 pp | — |
| pre-open09:29:59 ET · mostly follows US pre-market trading (from 04:00 ET), not the chain's own call | 6 | — | 6 of 6 no rate below n = 15 | 1.92 pp | — |
| chain at | n | Pearson r 95% CI | same sign as gap 95% CI | mean abs error | slope |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +5 min | 1 | — | 1 of 1 no rate below n = 15 | 5.23 pp | — |
| +1 h | 1 | — | 1 of 1 no rate below n = 15 | 3.44 pp | — |
| 20:00 ETafter-close events only | 0 | — | 0 of 0 no rate below n = 15 | — | — |
| 03:59 ETafter-close events only | 0 | — | 0 of 0 no rate below n = 15 | — | — |
| pre-open09:29:59 ET · mostly follows US pre-market trading (from 04:00 ET), not the chain's own call | 1 | — | 1 of 1 no rate below n = 15 | 2.30 pp | — |
chain move = chain price at that point vs the 15:59 ET close the pre-market board uses real gap = oracle at 09:30 ET vs the previous close same sign counts pairs where both moves are at least 0.1% headline = quarterly results plus filings not yet classified; operating updates are listed below and not scored here 3 events with a suspect reference listed, not scored anywhere 8 headline events, 7 with a real open rates and correlations are not published below n = 15
+5 min vs the real open
first reaction vs SEC filing
- median
- −2m 04s
- middle half
- −4m 57s to −1m 13s
- earliest · latest
- −11m 05s · −1m 10s
- before the filing
- 4 of 4
- false jumps on control days
- 0 of 12 (0.0%)
Each dot = one event, stacked by minute; hover for the name.
The chain usually moves before the filing is accepted, so the filing time is an upper bound.
Control = same market and ET clock time on trading days without a filing.
All eventsmove from the reference price in bps · chain vs close and real gap in %
| filed · ET | market | session · kind | first reaction | at filing | +5 min | +1 h | pre-openmostly follows US pre-market trading (from 04:00 ET) | real gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-0311:07:42 | CIENCiena Corp | intradayquarterlyreference suspect | −54m 11s | — | — | +193.0 | — | +0.86% |
| 2026-09-0216:26:04 | AVGOBroadcom Inc. | after closequarterly | −11m 05s | −391.0 | −534.5 | +171.1 | -4.42% | -4.63% |
| 2026-09-0120:08:16 | CRDOCredo Technology Group Holding Ltd | after closequarterly | none found | +23.1 | +32.2 | +55.2 | -8.85% | -10.40% |
| 2026-08-2716:13:20 | IRENIREN Ltd | after closequarterly | −2m 54s | +48.0 | −73.9 | −416.3 | -7.28% | -7.50% |
| 2026-08-2620:07:02 | CRWDCrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. | after closequarterly | none found | — | — | — | +11.44% | — |
| 2026-08-1220:10:13 | COHRCoherent Corp. | after closequarterly | none found | +55.4 | +47.9 | −99.6 | -7.42% | -4.05% |
| 2026-08-0620:20:52 | NETCloudflare, Inc. | after closequarterly | none found | — | — | — | +15.40% | +11.03% |
| 2026-08-0620:13:01 | AAOIApplied Optoelectronics, Inc. | after closequarterlyreference suspect | −49m 11s | +241.7 | +241.7 | +677.3 | +18.77% | +11.09% |
| 2026-07-2906:00:36 | TERTeradyne, Inc | before openquarterlyreference suspect | −50m 11s | −14.4 | −14.4 | −54.9 | +14.48% | +12.60% |
| 2026-07-2816:07:21 | STXSeagate Technology Holdings plc | after closequarterly | −1m 10s | +66.6 | +497.5 | — | +5.73% | +3.91% |
| 2026-07-2807:03:07 | GLWCorning Increference 15m 06s old | before openquarterly | −1m 14s | −371.6 | −443.1 | −1342.9 | -15.45% | -13.15% |
No event matches.
bps from the reference price: that day's regular-session close for filings within an hour after it, else the last trade 30 minutes before the filing first reaction = detected jump vs the filing time, searched from the close (or 60 min before the filing) to 30 min after it; "none found" = no clear jump pre-open = chain at 09:29:59 ET vs the previous close; it mostly follows US pre-market trading (from 04:00 ET) real gap "—" = the real open was not recorded that day update = operating update or preliminary results, not in the headline scorecard reference suspect = the first reaction came at or before the reference time, so the reference may already include the release; listed, not scored
Excludedlisted with the reason; nothing is interpolated
- VST 2026-08-07 11:00:25 ET intradayquarterlycollector gap SEC filing No xyz trades observed or received for more than 120 seconds in the reference/reaction window; delayed replay cannot establish complete collection.
- LRCX 2026-07-29 16:07:10 ET after closequarterlyno reference price SEC filing No valid trade at or before the pre-release reference time (120s close / 30m otherwise).
Not coveredand why
- 8 filings
- Filed before the market was listed on para: CIFR-2026-08-04, IREN-2026-07-20, MELI-2026-08-05, RDDT-2026-07-30, SMCI-2026-07-21, SMCI-2026-08-11, SOFI-2026-07-29, TTWO-2026-08-07.
- 1 market
- Covered, but our changelog has no listing date, so the first archived trade stands in: first trade 2026-06-16 (AVGO).
- upcoming
- No upcoming dates: there is no official schedule source. Why.
definitions and limits: methodology · raw: /api/para/earnings/events.json