~ / data / macro / 2026-09-30-0830

$ macro show 2026-09-30-0830 # Wed 30 Sep 2026 · 08:30 ET · 2026-09-30 12:30 UTC · US session at release: extended

PCE (August) + GDP 2026Q2, third estimate

PCEGDP Released Wed 30 Sep 2026 · 08:30 ET. The official numbers, then how Hyperliquid's xyz perps moved from the last trade before the release, through the hour before the NYSE opened, to the open.

$ macro numbers 2026-09-30-0830 # first print as published · revisions shown separately

Official numbersno consensus forecast is official, so none is shown

Personal Income and Outlays · 2026-08

PCE prices m/m: +0.3%; prior +0.1%
Core PCE m/m: +0.2%; prior +0.1%
PCE prices y/y: 3.4%; prior 3.4%
Core PCE y/y: 3.0%; prior 3.0%

source: PCEPI, PCEPILFE · release

Gross Domestic Product · 2026Q2, third estimate

Real GDP, q/q annualised: +2.2%; prior +2.5%

source: A191RL1Q225SBEA · release

$ macro path 2026-09-30-0830 --from -10m --to +60m # 10-second points

Reactionbps from the last trade before 08:30 ET

SP500 · XYZ100 · GOLD

USD = EURUSD inverted · a gap = no valid price: no trade after the release yet, or no reference trade in the 2 minutes before it · hover for values

SP500XYZ100GOLD

market	−30 min	−5 min	−1 min	5 s	30 s	1 min	5 min	15 min	30 min	at open	max 60 s	fills 5m
SP500index	−9.5	−6.5	−3.5	−0.1	+17.6	+17.3	+27.7	+20.4	+15.1	+10.8	+20.6at 36.3 s	1,045
XYZ100index	−7.9	−9.9	−3.3	+1.3	+23.7	+24.7	+39.9	+34.3	+31.6	+28.7	+27.0at 31.3 s	919
GOLDcommodity	−12.9	−1.9	−2.9	+6.7	+36.0	+33.6	+53.4	+52.5	+37.7	+7.2	+41.0at 22.7 s	506
SILVERcommodity	−33.5	−11.7	−15.4	+5.3	+50.1	+61.1	+69.0	+71.3	+40.4	+18.1	+64.2at 56.1 s	1,042
CLcommodity	+17.0	−4.8	−4.2	−2.1	−22.9	−6.2	−15.4	+5.0	−8.4	+112.1	−31.5at 43.8 s	402
BRENTOILcommodity	+5.6	−4.1	+0.1	+2.0	−22.2	−2.9	−10.8	+11.4	+9.2	+125.4	−32.4at 43.7 s	447
COPPERcommodity	−20.4	−11.3	—	—	+13.4	+19.0	+11.3	+8.0	+11.2	−12.8	+20.7at 48.8 s	61
EURfx · up = dollar down · no trade before the release	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	85
GBPfx · up = dollar down · no trade before the release	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	2
JPYfx · up = dollar up · no trade before the release	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	15
TLTetf · no trade before the release	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	14
SMHetf	−11.7	−25.4	0.0	—	+6.8	+6.8	+62.8	+61.8	+68.4	+57.7	+8.3at 8.4 s	31

reference = the last trade before the release, no older than 2 minutes; before-release columns show where the market already was relative to it · after the release, a point is the last trade up to that time and only trades after the release count; "—" = no such trade · EUR and GBP are quoted in dollars per unit, JPY in yen per dollar, so "up" means a weaker dollar for EUR and GBP and a stronger one for JPY · max 60 s = the largest move on any trade in the first minute and when it happened · at open = last trade at 09:30:00 ET

every proxy · −10 to +60 min

SP500

XYZ100

GOLD

SILVER

CL

BRENTOIL

COPPER

SMH

$ macro path 2026-09-30-0830 --to open # one point per minute

From the release to the opendid the first move hold?

08:30 → 09:35 ET · bps from the last trade before the release

USD = EURUSD inverted · hover for values

SP500XYZ100GOLD

SP500: +27.7 bps 5 minutes after, +10.8 bps at the open · the first move held

$ macro stocks 2026-09-30-0830 --sort abs-5m # 50 US stocks and ETFs on xyz · sortable

Every US stock and ETFbps from the last trade before the release

5 min after

50 up · 0 flat · 0 down of 50

sort by

market	5 s	1 min	5 min	15 min	at open	fills 5m
SOXLetf	+11.0	+155.6	+268.6	+236.2	+185.3	712
KORUetf	+8.3	+136.6	+239.1	+207.9	+169.3	411
AAOIus equity	—	+95.5	+133.3	+116.4	+127.4	41
ARMus equity	+6.9	+82.5	+132.3	+136.4	+117.5	71
BMNRus equity	—	+69.8	+131.0	+179.6	+162.9	166
CRCLus equity	+9.6	+69.8	+126.9	+158.9	+196.2	433
MSTRus equity	+5.7	+95.7	+126.3	+195.8	+266.6	680
CRWVus equity	—	+59.3	+125.2	+117.3	+230.8	107
IRENus equity	—	+70.8	+124.4	+123.7	+181.5	143
COINus equity	—	+87.2	+108.5	+138.1	+157.9	270
BEus equity	—	+52.4	+97.0	+102.8	+64.6	157
LITEus equity	—	+80.8	+96.1	+84.8	+108.7	82
ORCLus equity	+7.4	+39.1	+96.0	+65.7	+81.2	197
MRNAus equity	—	+71.8	+95.3	+92.7	−25.2	151
NBISus equity	—	+52.9	+91.7	+90.9	+89.3	309
AMATus equity	—	+60.0	+85.3	+67.1	+47.6	61
HOODus equity	+0.8	+66.2	+85.2	+63.7	+140.6	269
WDCus equity	—	+55.4	+83.3	+63.4	+16.6	166
EWZetf	+49.9	+77.1	+82.2	+82.2	−10.8	25
AMDus equity	+2.8	+43.3	+78.0	+64.0	+86.1	404
NOKus equity	—	+51.8	+76.7	+29.7	−39.3	14
EWYetf	+3.8	+45.0	+76.0	+69.5	+57.0	574
SNDKus equity	+4.1	+56.7	+75.2	+48.0	+39.4	1,507
INTCus equity	+2.6	+54.4	+73.4	+58.7	+51.0	473
MRVLus equity	+3.0	+63.6	+73.1	+75.8	+94.1	225
RKLBus equity	—	+23.8	+70.3	+59.7	−25.3	48
MUus equity	+0.9	+40.1	+70.0	+71.8	+55.1	869
PLTRus equity	—	+43.4	+67.5	+51.4	+73.4	248
SMHetf	—	+6.8	+62.8	+61.8	+57.7	31
QCOMus equity	+4.4	+48.5	+62.1	+68.6	+77.9	155
TSMus equity	+4.2	+36.1	+48.8	+51.0	+54.6	151
RDDTus equity	—	—	+45.3	+62.5	+65.2	3
TSLAus equity	+2.6	+22.2	+45.3	+38.2	+48.2	581
ASMLus equity	—	+27.4	+43.3	+36.7	+8.2	37
DELLus equity	—	+32.3	+36.0	+37.4	+80.6	53
AVGOus equity	−0.3	+39.8	+32.5	+19.9	+9.8	135
IBMus equity	—	+16.4	+31.8	+35.4	+21.8	8
BABAus equity	—	+19.3	+31.3	+23.9	+10.1	114
BBus equity	+16.7	+17.0	+31.2	+22.8	+105.3	101
NOWus equity	—	—	+30.0	+30.7	−49.9	3
NVDAus equity	0.0	+23.2	+28.9	+32.0	+58.8	445
AMZNus equity	+0.8	+16.2	+26.7	+21.1	+10.9	207
GOOGLus equity	+0.3	+14.2	+21.7	+16.8	−19.4	347
METAus equity	—	+14.6	+14.2	+1.0	−14.1	330
MSFTus equity	+0.8	+22.2	+13.6	+16.7	+47.5	281
AAPLus equity	+3.0	+6.1	+12.7	+8.8	+13.9	320
LLYus equity	—	−5.9	+8.4	−1.7	+11.8	4
CRWDus equity	—	+6.4	+5.7	+6.4	−35.6	50
ZMus equity	−0.1	+5.2	+5.2	+37.3	+7.4	7
EWJetf	—	+2.3	+2.3	+32.9	+28.1	3

every live US-equity and ETF market on xyz with a trade in the 2 minutes before the release · default order = largest 5-minute move either way · thin markets can show large moves on one or two fills; check the fill count · flat = under 1 bp

$ macro ls --type pce # earlier releases of the same type

Earlier PCE5 minutes after · bps

date	SP500	XYZ100	GOLD	USD
2026-08-26	−15.1	−26.7	−15.6	+5.1
2026-07-30	−3.5	0.0	−10.5	—
2026-06-25	+20.5	+24.1	+26.1	—
2026-05-28	—	—	—	—
2026-04-30	—	—	—	—
2026-04-09	—	—	—	—
2026-03-13	—	—	—	—
2026-02-20	—	—	—	—
2026-01-22	—	—	—	—

USD = EURUSD inverted · raw: /api/xyz/macro/event/2026-09-30-0830.json · definitions in methodology