~ / data / macro / 2026-10-01-0830

$ macro show 2026-10-01-0830 # Thu 1 Oct 2026 · 08:30 ET · 2026-10-01 12:30 UTC · US session at release: extended

Jobless claims (week ending 2026-09-26)

Jobless claims Released Thu 1 Oct 2026 · 08:30 ET. The official numbers, then how Hyperliquid's xyz perps moved from the last trade before the release, through the hour before the NYSE opened, to the open.

$ macro numbers 2026-10-01-0830 # first print as published · revisions shown separately

Official numbersno consensus forecast is official, so none is shown

Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report · 2026-09-26

Initial claims · week ending 2026-09-26: 197,000; prior 198,000
Continuing claims · week ending 2026-09-19: 1,701,000; prior 1,712,000

source: ICSA, CCSA · release

$ macro path 2026-10-01-0830 --from -10m --to +60m # 10-second points

Reactionbps from the last trade before 08:30 ET

SP500 · XYZ100 · GOLD · USD

USD = EURUSD inverted · a gap = no valid price: no trade after the release yet, or no reference trade in the 2 minutes before it · hover for values

SP500XYZ100GOLDUSD

market	−30 min	−5 min	−1 min	5 s	30 s	1 min	5 min	15 min	30 min	at open	max 60 s	fills 5m
SP500index	+0.8	−3.3	−2.7	−0.9	+1.0	−0.4	+4.2	−1.6	−11.8	−13.8	+1.8at 34.3 s	190
XYZ100index	+7.8	−2.0	−2.3	−0.3	+4.6	+0.3	+3.9	−2.0	−12.1	−17.0	+4.9at 27.1 s	167
GOLDcommodity	+6.2	−7.4	−6.2	−1.2	−2.2	+3.8	+9.3	+5.7	−0.7	−24.4	+6.0at 34.4 s	103
SILVERcommodity	−13.4	−23.6	−5.1	−1.3	−6.7	−3.4	+5.2	+7.4	+2.6	−11.8	−8.3at 32.9 s	352
CLcommodity	+12.2	+8.8	+13.4	+1.1	−2.7	−4.0	+7.5	−8.0	−12.3	−100.6	−4.2at 56.0 s	208
BRENTOILcommodity	+8.9	+9.1	+15.9	+2.9	−0.8	−2.8	+4.0	+18.9	+21.9	−1.5	+5.3at 8.2 s	210
COPPERcommodity	+0.8	−0.5	−3.0	+0.3	+0.3	+0.3	−0.6	+3.8	+7.3	−27.6	+0.3at 1.9 s	5
EURfx · up = dollar down	+10.6	+0.9	—	—	—	—	+3.5	0.0	−6.2	−6.2	—	4
GBPfx · up = dollar down · no trade before the release	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	5
JPYfx · up = dollar up	−3.2	0.0	0.0	−3.2	−0.6	−0.6	−1.9	0.0	0.0	−0.6	−3.2at 4.0 s	27
TLTetf	—	+14.7	—	—	—	—	+18.5	+19.1	−22.5	−34.1	—	4
SMHetf · no trade before the release	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0

reference = the last trade before the release, no older than 2 minutes; before-release columns show where the market already was relative to it · after the release, a point is the last trade up to that time and only trades after the release count; "—" = no such trade · EUR and GBP are quoted in dollars per unit, JPY in yen per dollar, so "up" means a weaker dollar for EUR and GBP and a stronger one for JPY · max 60 s = the largest move on any trade in the first minute and when it happened · at open = last trade at 09:30:00 ET

every proxy · −10 to +60 min

SP500

XYZ100

GOLD

SILVER

CL

BRENTOIL

COPPER

EUR

JPY

TLT

$ macro path 2026-10-01-0830 --to open # one point per minute

From the release to the opendid the first move hold?

08:30 → 09:35 ET · bps from the last trade before the release

USD = EURUSD inverted · hover for values

SP500XYZ100GOLDUSD

SP500: +4.2 bps 5 minutes after, −13.8 bps at the open · the first move did not hold

$ macro stocks 2026-10-01-0830 --sort abs-5m # 46 US stocks and ETFs on xyz · sortable

Every US stock and ETFbps from the last trade before the release

5 min after

28 up · 6 flat · 7 down of 41

sort by

market	5 s	1 min	5 min	15 min	at open	fills 5m
IBMus equity	—	−3.9	−45.1	−0.4	−80.4	34
BEus equity	+6.3	+6.3	+31.8	+27.6	−72.2	21
RKLBus equity	—	+7.4	+30.9	+53.6	−67.4	21
EWYetf	—	+17.9	+23.8	+9.2	−33.0	26
KORUetf	—	+3.9	+21.7	−12.1	−145.4	19
TLTetf	—	—	+18.5	+19.1	−34.1	4
CRWDus equity	—	+18.4	+18.4	−1.2	+77.5	6
SOXLetf	0.0	+4.6	+15.9	−28.6	−129.5	61
ARMus equity	—	+1.0	+15.0	+8.9	+47.8	22
CRCLus equity	—	+7.1	+13.6	+4.7	−79.0	94
AAOIus equity	—	—	−13.0	−15.0	−51.0	4
ORCLus equity	—	—	+12.9	+18.6	−11.5	22
EWZetf	−12.8	+14.9	+12.5	+26.6	−81.9	11
INTCus equity	—	+3.3	+10.0	+1.7	−71.0	135
AVGOus equity	—	+5.1	+8.8	+13.1	+4.0	5
TSMus equity	—	—	+8.1	+1.7	−5.9	2
AAPLus equity	+0.3	0.0	+7.5	−23.2	−64.4	35
BBus equity	—	—	+7.2	−5.2	−58.0	16
MRVLus equity	—	0.0	+7.2	−1.1	−19.6	45
PLTRus equity	—	+6.4	+6.9	+8.5	+71.0	9
DKNGus equity	—	—	−6.8	−6.8	+22.0	4
MSTRus equity	—	—	+5.2	+23.3	−33.7	7
TSLAus equity	—	0.0	+5.0	+8.1	+11.8	34
MUus equity	−4.7	+6.6	+4.7	−23.6	−32.1	262
NBISus equity	—	+6.7	−4.6	−8.4	−114.7	78
METAus equity	—	−2.1	+4.5	+17.1	+23.8	211
IRENus equity	—	—	+4.4	−10.7	−114.0	3
NFLXus equity	—	+3.7	+3.7	+16.0	−75.1	6
AMZNus equity	+1.2	+2.0	+3.6	+8.7	+7.2	58
AMDus equity	—	−5.0	−2.9	−3.4	−37.6	122
NOWus equity	—	+2.9	+2.9	+26.8	+63.7	32
MRNAus equity	—	—	+2.7	−17.2	+9.6	3
DELLus equity	—	+0.7	+1.8	−17.0	−8.1	12
GOOGLus equity	−0.3	−6.9	−1.7	−2.0	+40.3	77
QCOMus equity	—	+5.4	−1.6	−4.9	+8.6	5
NVDAus equity	−0.9	−0.9	+0.9	+1.3	−14.3	58
SNDKus equity	—	+1.1	+0.6	−33.6	−103.2	97
COINus equity	—	—	+0.5	+11.2	−53.8	11
MSFTus equity	−1.5	−3.5	+0.4	−1.7	+15.4	25
WDCus equity	—	−2.0	−0.2	−18.4	−91.5	7
HOODus equity	—	−9.7	0.0	−14.1	−107.6	38
BMNRus equity	—	—	—	—	−105.0	0
CVXus equity	—	—	—	—	—	0
LITEus equity	—	—	—	+5.7	+1.6	0
STRCus equity	—	—	—	+1.6	+2.7	0
USARus equity	—	—	—	+14.8	−69.8	0

every live US-equity and ETF market on xyz with a trade in the 2 minutes before the release · default order = largest 5-minute move either way · thin markets can show large moves on one or two fills; check the fill count · flat = under 1 bp

$ macro ls --type claims # earlier releases of the same type

Earlier Jobless claims5 minutes after · bps

date	SP500	XYZ100	GOLD	USD
2026-09-24	−8.3	−10.9	−3.5	+4.4
2026-09-17	+8.5	+8.2	−21.9	0.0
2026-09-03	+16.2	+22.0	+42.9	—
2026-08-27	−4.5	−3.7	−4.8	—
2026-08-20	−2.0	−4.1	−11.7	+6.0
2026-08-06	+1.3	+2.4	+18.5	—
2026-07-23	−5.5	−11.5	−3.7	—
2026-07-16	+0.8	+1.4	−3.0	—
2026-07-09	+2.9	+5.8	+22.1	—
2026-06-18	−0.3	−3.0	−3.8	—
2026-06-04	—	—	—	—
2026-05-21	—	—	—	—

USD = EURUSD inverted · raw: /api/xyz/macro/event/2026-10-01-0830.json · definitions in methodology