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Pre-market 2026-09-15: the chain vs the open

How far each US stock and ETF perp on Hyperliquid's Paragon (para) deployer moved on-chain between the 2026-09-14 close and 04:00 and 09:00 ET on 2026-09-15, and whether the real opening gap went the same way.

as of 2026-09-15 09:00 ET window overnight · Mon 14 Sep 16:00 → Tue 15 Sep 09:30 ET open 09:30 ET · gaps filled
markets with data
19 of 21
10 up · 9 down by 09:00 ET
median |move| · 09:00 call
1.50%
close → 09:00 ET
09:00 call agreed
—
n=10 with both |moves| ≥ 0.10% (<15)
04:00 call agreed
—
n=9 with both |moves| ≥ 0.10% (<15)
21 marketsdefault order: largest |09:00 move| first · click a column to sort
marketclass04:00 call09:00 callhigh / lowpath · close → 09:30real gapright before · ±0.10%volume
SMCIus equity us equity -2.70% · 3h28m old -2.70% · 8h28m old -2.08% / -3.87% +0.69% 09:00 n=1 (<15)04:00 n=2 (<15) $3k
RDDTus equity us equity -1.11%✓ · 6m old -2.48%✓ +0.30% / -3.54% -1.84% 09:00 n=9 (<15)04:00 n=7 (<15) $23k
NETus equity us equity -0.82%✓ -2.35% · 2h27m old +0.12% / -2.35% -1.02% 09:00 n=7 (<15)04:00 n=5 (<15) $6k
CRDOus equity us equity +0.12%✓ +1.87%✓ · 8m old +2.37% / -0.64% +1.46% 09:00 90% of 2004:00 n=11 (<15) $181k
CRWDus equity us equity -1.21%✓ -1.83%✓ · 7m old +0.20% / -2.32% -0.55% 09:00 n=8 (<15)04:00 n=6 (<15) $176k
COHRus equity us equity +0.41%✓ +1.77%✓ +2.61% / -0.23% +3.85% 09:00 83% of 2304:00 n=9 (<15) $79k
TERus equity us equity +0.64% · 2h58m old +1.70%✓ · 17m old +2.16% / -0.27% +1.95% 09:00 n=7 (<15)04:00 n=6 (<15) $8k
TTWOus equity us equity -0.32% · 1h38m old -1.61% · 1h04m old +0.06% / -1.61% -1.36% 09:00 n=1 (<15)04:00 n=0 (<15) $38k
IGVus etf us etf -0.55% · 44m old -1.56%✓ · 11m old +0.42% / -2.52% -0.79% 09:00 n=1 (<15)04:00 n=0 (<15) $8k
LRCXus equity us equity +0.38% · 2h59m old +1.50% · 1h57m old +2.20% / +0.10% +0.23% 09:00 81% of 1604:00 n=5 (<15) $15k
CIFRus equity us equity -0.75% · 11h33m old -1.49% · 10h11m old -0.75% / -2.61% -1.50% 09:00 n=0 (<15)04:00 n=0 (<15) $4k
GLWus equity us equity +0.51% · 45m old +1.21%✓ +1.88% / -1.29% +1.43% 09:00 93% of 1504:00 n=6 (<15) $45k
AAOIus equity us equity -0.26%✗ +0.83%✓ +2.15% / -0.80% +2.90% 09:00 88% of 1704:00 n=8 (<15) $31k
CIENus equity us equity +0.43% · 2h58m old -0.78% · 4h21m old +0.43% / -0.78% +2.12% 09:00 n=5 (<15)04:00 n=5 (<15) $3k
VSTus equity us equity -0.11%✗ +0.70%✓ +1.04% / -0.28% +1.12% 09:00 n=8 (<15)04:00 n=7 (<15) $50k
STXus equity us equity +0.65% · 3h37m old +0.37% · 1h59m old +1.08% / -1.39% -1.19% 09:00 80% of 1504:00 n=11 (<15) $4k
IRENus equity us equity -0.62%✓ · 12m old +0.20%✗ · 20m old +1.17% / -1.37% -2.27% 09:00 82% of 2204:00 n=12 (<15) $8k
SOFIus equity us equity -0.18%✓ · 25m old -0.18% · 5h25m old +0.82% / -0.78% -0.74% 09:00 n=3 (<15)04:00 n=2 (<15) $3k
AVGOus equity us equity +0.01% · 1h51m old +0.06% · 1h58m old +0.61% / -0.32% +0.55% 09:00 n=14 (<15)04:00 n=6 (<15) $77k
MELIus equitymissing data · excluded us equity — — — / — -1.32% 09:00 n=0 (<15)04:00 n=0 (<15) —
SMHus etfmissing data · excluded us etf — — — / — — 09:00 n=0 (<15)04:00 n=0 (<15) —

04:00 call = last 1-minute candle close before 04:00 ET vs the candle close in the last minute of the previous session (15:59 ET, 12:59 on half days) 09:00 call = the same at 09:00 ET "12m old" = the candle used closed that long before the target minute (shown above 5 min; older than 30 min is excluded from every rate) ✓ same direction as the real gap, ✗ opposite, and · inside the 0.10% dead band (not scored) high / low = extremes of 1-minute highs and lows while the market was closed, same base path = candle close every 15 minutes from the previous close to 09:30 ET, scale per row, centre line = previous close, ticks = 04:00 and 09:00, dashed = no candle in between real gap = oracle price at 09:30 ET vs at the previous close, on para's own oracle; on the 221 symbol-nights xyz also lists, it was within 0.04 pp of xyz's (median) and went the same way 206 of 211 times right before = this symbol's past nights with the same 0.10% band, shown from n=15 volume = sum of 1-minute base volume × close in the window, approximate definitions in methodology

call vs open · 2026-09-15

04:00 call · one dot per market (19 of 19) · shaded quadrants = same direction · grey cross = ±0.10% dead band · hover a dot for the symbol
-4%-4%-3%-3%-2%-2%-1%-1%00+1%+1%+2%+2%+3%+3%+4%+4%AAOI · chain -0.26% · gap +2.90%AVGO · chain +0.01% · gap +0.55%CIEN · chain +0.43% · gap +2.12%CIFR · chain -0.75% · gap -1.50%COHR · chain +0.41% · gap +3.85%CRDO · chain +0.12% · gap +1.46%CRWD · chain -1.21% · gap -0.55%GLW · chain +0.51% · gap +1.43%IREN · chain -0.62% · gap -2.27%LRCX · chain +0.38% · gap +0.23%NET · chain -0.82% · gap -1.02%RDDT · chain -1.11% · gap -1.84%SMCI · chain -2.70% · gap +0.69%SOFI · chain -0.18% · gap -0.74%STX · chain +0.65% · gap -1.19%TER · chain +0.64% · gap +1.95%TTWO · chain -0.32% · gap -1.36%VST · chain -0.11% · gap +1.12%IGV · chain -0.55% · gap -0.79%x = chain move by 04:00 ETy = real opening gap

One night is a small sample; the running record is on the scorecard, which describes past nights and is not a forecast. Data: 2026-09-15.json · definitions and caveats in methodology.

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