The chain's pre-market on para

Wall Street closes at 16:00 New York time; the US stock perps on Hyperliquid's Paragon (para) deployer keep trading. This board shows how far each one moved on-chain between the previous close and two moments: 04:00 ET, before any US venue opens, and 09:00 ET, after five hours of US pre-market. Once the bell has rung it shows whether the real opening gap went the same way.

as of 2026-10-08 09:00 ET window overnight · Wed 7 Oct 16:00 → Thu 8 Oct 09:30 ET open opened at 09:30 ET 2026-10-08 · gaps filled permalink →

markets with data

2 up · 19 down by 09:00 ET

median |move| · 09:00 call

1.96%

close → 09:00 ET

09:00 call agreed

—

n=9 with both |moves| ≥ 0.10% (<15)

scorecard · all nights

87% / 75%

agreed · 09:00 / 04:00 call · of 325 / 207 · ±0.10% · details

21 marketsdefault order: largest |09:00 move| first · click a column to sort

market	class	04:00 call	09:00 call	high / low	real gap	right before · ±0.10%	volume
AAOIus equity	us equity	-3.43% · 55m old	-5.02% · 1h00m old	+0.28% / -5.68%	-4.91%	09:00 93% of 2904:00 n=14 (<15)	$42k
GLWus equity	us equity	-1.46% · 1h40m old	-3.67% · 1h02m old	-0.20% / -3.67%	-3.53%	09:00 95% of 2004:00 n=7 (<15)	$3k
COHRus equity	us equity	-2.11% · 34m old	-3.30%✓ · 12m old	+0.58% / -3.30%	-4.52%	09:00 86% of 2904:00 88% of 17	$46k
CIENus equity	us equity	-2.88% · 58m old	-3.12% · 43m old	+0.23% / -3.18%	-2.56%	09:00 n=9 (<15)04:00 n=5 (<15)	$16k
CIFRus equity	us equity	-1.21% · 51m old	-2.81%✓	+1.26% / -3.03%	-3.02%	09:00 n=9 (<15)04:00 n=8 (<15)	$44k
CRDOus equity	us equity	-2.28% · 32m old	-2.74%✓ · 24m old	+0.71% / -3.44%	-3.10%	09:00 93% of 3004:00 84% of 19	$72k
TERus equity	us equity	-0.84%✓ · 8m old	-2.56% · 2h32m old	+1.82% / -2.56%	-2.13%	09:00 n=12 (<15)04:00 n=11 (<15)	$121k
LRCXus equity	us equity	-1.48%✓	-2.45%✓ · 7m old	+0.79% / -2.80%	-2.80%	09:00 84% of 1904:00 n=7 (<15)	$131k
IRENus equity	us equity	-2.00% · 54m old	-2.17% · 1h19m old	+0.68% / -2.71%	-2.51%	09:00 80% of 2504:00 87% of 15	$29k
SMCIus equity	us equity	-0.51% · 1h30m old	-2.01% · 58m old	+0.18% / -2.01%	-2.20%	09:00 n=3 (<15)04:00 n=4 (<15)	$5k
STXus equity	us equity	-0.93% · 1h03m old	-1.96% · 1h49m old	+0.46% / -2.15%	-1.90%	09:00 83% of 2304:00 n=14 (<15)	$138k
SMHus etf	us etf	+0.52% · 7h48m old	-1.49% · 1h48m old	+0.52% / -1.51%	-1.65%	09:00 n=0 (<15)04:00 n=0 (<15)	$10k
MELIus equity	us equity	-0.98%✓	-1.21%✓ · 8m old	-0.45% / -1.74%	-0.62%	09:00 n=1 (<15)04:00 n=0 (<15)	$140k
VSTus equity	us equity	-2.08%✓	-1.17%✓	-0.01% / -2.92%	-1.54%	09:00 86% of 2204:00 81% of 21	$374k
AVGOus equity	us equity	-0.62% · 1h20m old	-0.98% · 31m old	+0.74% / -1.36%	-1.50%	09:00 95% of 2104:00 83% of 18	$50k
SOFIus equity	us equity	-0.96% · 39m old	-0.96% · 5h39m old	+0.31% / -1.62%	-1.41%	09:00 n=7 (<15)04:00 n=3 (<15)	$4k
RDDTus equity	us equity	-1.14%✗ · 10m old	-0.84%✗	-0.16% / -1.72%	+0.35%	09:00 93% of 1504:00 n=12 (<15)	$14k
CRWDus equity	us equity	-0.71% · 43m old	-0.57% · 1h34m old	+0.57% / -0.82%	+0.05%	09:00 85% of 2004:00 n=11 (<15)	$2k
TTWOus equity	us equity	+0.27%✓	+0.26%✓ · 8m old	+2.49% / -0.25%	+0.32%	09:00 n=3 (<15)04:00 n=5 (<15)	$384k
NETus equity	us equity	-0.53% · 6h02m old	-0.24%✓ · 7m old	+0.66% / -0.88%	-0.87%	09:00 n=12 (<15)04:00 n=9 (<15)	$49k
IGVus etf	us etf	+0.61%✓	+0.12% · 4h53m old	+1.03% / -0.14%	+0.19%	09:00 n=7 (<15)04:00 n=0 (<15)	$24k

04:00 call = last 1-minute candle close before 04:00 ET vs the candle close in the last minute of the previous session (15:59 ET, 12:59 on half days) 09:00 call = the same at 09:00 ET "12m old" = the candle used closed that long before the target minute (shown above 5 min; older than 30 min is excluded from every rate) ✓ same direction as the real gap, ✗ opposite, and · inside the 0.10% dead band (not scored) high / low = extremes of 1-minute highs and lows while the market was closed, same base path = candle close every 15 minutes from the previous close to 09:30 ET, scale per row, centre line = previous close, ticks = 04:00 and 09:00, dashed = no candle in between real gap = oracle price at 09:30 ET vs at the previous close, on para's own oracle; on the 221 symbol-nights xyz also lists, it was within 0.04 pp of xyz's (median) and went the same way 206 of 211 times right before = this symbol's past nights with the same 0.10% band, shown from n=15 volume = sum of 1-minute base volume × close in the window, approximate definitions in methodology

How often the chain called the open74 nights · 2026-06-17 → 2026-10-08 · us_equity + us_etf only

Every completed night since 2026-06-17, two calls against the real opening gap. The 09:00 call has had five hours of US pre-market trading (from 04:00 ET) to follow, so much of it repeats prices already being set on US venues. The 04:00 call is taken before any US venue opens; that part is what only a 24/7 venue can provide. A call counts only when both moves are at least 0.10%. This is a description of what already happened, not a forecast of the next open.

Method notes. Each call is the 1-minute candle close just before 04:00 or 09:00 ET against the candle close in the last minute of the previous session; the real gap is the deployer's oracle price at 09:30 ET against the oracle at the previous close. 1-minute candles can be sparse overnight, so a quiet market's path has holes. The oracle is sampled about once a minute, so the reference close and real open approximate the official exchange prints. Pre-IPO and non-US names are excluded because they have no US open. A call whose candle closed more than 30 minutes before its target minute is stale and excluded from every rate and chart here: 447 09:00 calls and 543 04:00 calls so far; boards still show them with their age. Full definitions: methodology. Data: latest.json · scorecard.json · one file per date at /api/para/premarket/<date>.json.

04:00 call agreed · ±0.10%

75%

of 207 calls · before any US venue opens

09:00 call agreed · ±0.10%

87%

of 325 calls · after 5 h of US pre-market

median |gap| · real

1.73%

oracle at 09:30 vs previous close

nights

2026-06-17 → 2026-10-08 · 5 of 21 symbols with n ≥ 15

04:00 vs 09:00 call · all nights

every rate with its N · nothing shown below n=15

	04:00 call	09:00 call
calls scored · ±0.10%	207	325
agreed · ±0.10% band	75% of 207	87% of 325
agreed · no band	75% of 226	86% of 342
mean abs error	1.53 pp	1.22 pp
beta · gap on call	1.00	0.95

mean abs error = mean |call − real gap| in percentage points and beta = OLS slope of the real gap on the call (no intercept; 1 means the gap matched the call on average), both over every completed pair, the no-band N only the agree rate uses the 0.10% band calls older than 30 min excluded

calibration · call vs open

04:00 call · each dot = one symbol on one night (224 shown) · shaded quadrants = same direction · grey cross = ±0.10% dead band, not scored

45° · gap = callslope 1.00 (OLS)symbol-night

2 points beyond the axis range not drawn; they are in scorecard.json.

by window

agreed with the ±0.10% band, by how long Wall Street was closed

window	n · 04:00	04:00	mae · 04:00	n · 09:00	09:00	mae · 09:00
overnight	165	73%	1.45 pp	264	87%	1.21 pp
weekend	34	79%	1.96 pp	52	90%	1.25 pp
holiday	8	n < 15	—	9	n < 15	—

by size of the call

bigger moves, better calls? buckets of |call move| (each call bucketed on its own move), ±0.10% band

\|call move\|	n · 04:00	04:00	n · 09:00	09:00
0.10–0.25%	21	67%	14	n < 15
0.25–0.50%	25	72%	24	62%
0.50–1%	50	60%	61	82%
>1%	111	84%	226	93%

a coin flip is 50%

by symbol · 04:00 call agreed most often

ranked by the 04:00 rate · symbols with n ≥ 15 · ±0.10% band

market	n · 04	04:00	β · 04	n · 09	09:00	β · 09
COHR	17	88%	0.94	30	87%	0.92
IREN	15	87%	0.83	25	80%	1.24

by symbol · 04:00 call agreed least often